UFC 330 Picks & Predictions: Makhachev vs Garry
UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry picks and predictions
UFC 330 takes place on 15 August, with 2 title fights for fans to look forward to. The Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, will host this stacked fight card. In the main event of the evening, the welterweight title is on the line, as the champion, Islam Makhachev, faces contender Ian Machado Garry. Former lightweight champion Makhachev moved up to take the welterweight belt last year and now looks to defend it for the first time.
In the co-main event, current women’s strawweight champion Mackenzie Dern looks to defend her title against Gillian Robertson. Plus, fan-favourite Edson Barboza faces Esteban Ribovics. There are lots of exciting fights to watch, and the main card and prelims arean excellent opportunity for bettors because of the great odds and interesting matchups.
You can bet on every fight at UFC 330 at Stake Sportsbook. The latest MMA betting odds are available now, and there are plenty of betting opportunities on this card. Before you bet, check out our expert opinions and analysis of the upcoming fight card right here at Stake. We base our UFC 330 picks on fighting style matchups, career statistics and recent performances.
Makhachev vs Machado Garry main event prediction
Our main event prediction is that Islam Makhachev will successfully defend his title against Ian Machado Garry. Makhachev has championship experience, having already won 6 UFC title fights, including 5 at lightweight and the welterweight title in 2025. The Dagestani fighter, who trained under Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov and is associated with Khabib Nurmagomedov, is one of the most dominant champions in the history of the promotion. Our UFC predictions are that Makhachev will win and likely finish the fight on the ground.
Makhachev has a 28-1 professional MMA record, with 17 wins and just 1 loss in the UFC. He’s best known for his excellent wrestling and ability to control opponents on the ground, but he also has dangerous striking. Makhachev is considered the top pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC, and as a result, he’s a significant favourite according to the UFC 330 odds. 65% of his UFC wins have been by stoppage, including 8 submissions and 3 KO/TKOs.
For Machado Garry, this will be his first UFC title fight, although he previously held the Cage Warriors welterweight belt. He’s gone on an impressive run in the UFC since arriving in 2021, winning 10 and losing just once. Machado Garry’s only loss was to fellow title contender Shavkat Rakhmonov, while he has wins over Michael Page, Carlos Prates and former champion Belal Muhammad. However, Islam Makhachev will be his toughest test by far.
Can Ian Machado Garry's size and reach trouble Makhachev at welterweight
Ian Machado Garry is coming up against a fighter who has looked unstoppable for most of his career. However, he does have one major advantage over his opponent. Garry is 6’3”, while Makhachev is 5’10”. The size can make a big difference, especially in relation to the fighter’s reach. Garry has 4 inches of reach over Makhachev, while his leg reach is 1.5 inches longer. Makhachev vs Garry will be the largest size discrepancy that the champion has faced in the Octagon.
Machado Garry's extra reach will give him a much better chance of keeping his distance and avoiding Makhachev's takedowns. This will no doubt be the Irish fighter’s game plan, as once Makhachev takes his opponent to the ground, it’s very difficult for them to get up again. Machado Garry arguably has the better striking, with 4.78 to 2.45 strikes landed per minute in his favour. Meanwhile, Makhachev’s takedown average per 15 minutes is 3.1, while Machado Garry’s is 0.92.
Dern vs Robertson co-main prediction
Our co-main prediction is that Mackenzie Dern will retain her strawweight belt and beat Gillian Robertson at UFC 330. Although they have similar records, Dern is the slight favourite in this matchup. She’s 16-5 in her pro MMA career, with 11 wins and 5 losses in the UFC. However, she faced stronger opposition, with wins over the likes of Amanda Ribas and Virna Jandiroba. Meanwhile, Robertson is 17-8 in her career, with 14 wins and 6 losses in the UFC. However, she is on an impressive 5-fight win streak, with her last loss to Tabatha Ricci in 2023.
Both of these fighters are excellent on the ground, with high-level grappling and submission skills. 5 of Dern’s UFC wins have been by submission, while Robertson has 7 submission wins in the promotion. Considering the quality of their grappling skills, our MMA predictions are that this may end up being decided by striking. Dern has a higher rate of significant strikes landed per minute, with 3.47 compared to Robertson’s 2.71.
Our picks for the rest of the UFC 330 card
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus - Abdul-Malik is a top prospect who should bounce back from his first career loss in his last fight. Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO.
Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics - Barboza is a legend of the sport but is now on a 3-fight losing streak that we’re predicting will continue as he moves up a weight class. Ribovics by decision.
Jalin Turner vs. Kauê Fernandes - Fernandes is a rising prospect who made short work of his last opponent, while Turner has 2 wins in his last 6. Fernandes by KO/TKO.
Donte Johnson vs. Eric McConico - Johnson is undefeated with 2 wins in the UFC while McConico is 2-2. Johnson by KO/TKO.
Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore - Luque is a UFC veteran and submission specialist, but Gore is a tough opponent who has never been submitted. Gore by decision.
Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj - Brahimaj has won nearly all of his UFC fights by submission, while 50% of Magny’s career losses are by submission. Brahimaj by submission.
Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai - Orolbai has just 1 loss in the UFC and is currently on a 3-fight win streak while Wells is 5-2 in the UFC. Orolbai by decision.
UFC 330 parlay picks and longshot plays
Best UFC 330 parlay combinations
You can combine UFC bets in your betslip to place a parlay and increase the fight odds and your potential payout. However, every selection has to win for your bet to pay, so be careful with underdog picks.For our UFC 330 predictions, we’re picking Orolbai, Abdul-Malik, Ribovics and Makhachev all to win in a 4-leg multi.
Remember, you can use the Stake shield feature, which lets you protect your UFC 330 parlay in case one selection loses.
Method of victory and round betting picks worth backing
We’ve listed our method of victory UFC picks for each fight above. When choosing a method of victory pick, look at each fighter’s record and how their fights typically end. If a fighter is a big puncher, they may offer value depending on the available odds. Meanwhile, a submission artist against a fighter who’s weak on the ground also presents a good betting opportunity.
The round betting picks are also a good option for when you think a fight is likely to go to decision or will end in a stoppage. For example, Robertson has only been submitted once in her MMA career, which was 8 years ago. Dern isn’t a big hitter, with all of her fights ending in decisions or submissions. So, if neither fighter secures a finish, the five-round title could go to the judges’ scorecards.
Where to bet on UFC 330 at Stake
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